Energy Outlook

By: Jacob Kim

As climate change accelerates, its impact on global food production is becoming increasingly severe and unequal. Crops like maize, which feed billions worldwide, are expected to suffer significant yield declines, particularly in tropical regions. Meanwhile, some crops, like wheat, may benefit from higher levels of carbon dioxide, but these gains will be limited to temperate regions. This disparity raises critical concerns about food security, especially for vulnerable populations in the Global South.

Climate change affects crop yields in three main ways: higher CO2 levels, rising temperatures, and water availability. While CO2 can boost yields for crops like wheat and rice, maize and sorghum—staples in much of Africa and Latin America—derive little benefit and are highly sensitive to temperature increases. As global warming pushes temperatures beyond the optimal range for these crops, especially in tropical areas, yields are expected to decline by as much as 25% in some regions. Additionally, more extreme weather events like droughts and floods will further exacerbate these declines, threatening the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers.

The injustice of climate change is stark: regions that have contributed the least to global emissions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia, will bear the brunt of its effects. These areas rely heavily on crops like millet, maize, and sorghum, which are particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures. In contrast, wealthier, high-latitude regions like Europe and North America may see increased yields for wheat, highlighting the deep global inequality in climate impacts.

Urgent adaptation is needed to mitigate these risks. One key strategy is closing the “yield gap,” which refers to the difference between current agricultural productivity and potential yields if farmers had access to better technology, seeds, and practices. Investments in climate-resilient crops and infrastructure, along with policy reforms that support sustainable agriculture, are critical to ensuring food security in the future.

If we fail to adapt, the consequences will be dire: widespread hunger, increased poverty, and heightened global inequality. Governments and institutions must act now to protect food systems and help vulnerable communities adapt to the rapidly changing climate. The stakes are too high to delay.

Source

https://ourworldindata.org/will-climate-change-affect-crop-yields-future