Energy Outlook

By: Jacob Kim

As we move deeper into the 21st century, the looming threat of climate change is no longer a distant warning but a harsh reality. With over 8,000 deaths in the U.S. now linked to extreme temperatures, both hot and cold, the question is no longer if these numbers will rise but how bad it will get. And the answer, unfortunately, looks grim. By mid-century, we could see temperature-linked deaths double or even triple, according to recent studies published in JAMA Network Open.

This isn’t just about numbers on a graph—this is about lives. The increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves are putting stress on our bodies in ways we haven’t seen before. Sweltering temperatures that we once thought were rare are becoming the norm, hammering large swaths of the United States with dangerous heat. On June 10, 2024, parts of the U.S. saw temperatures rise above 40°C (104°F), causing widespread distress, particularly among vulnerable populations like the elderly, minorities, and those in urban areas with limited access to cooling resources such as trees and air conditioning.

Researchers from the University of Pennsylvania, led by cardiologist Sameed Khatana, project two possible futures for our planet—one with low increases in greenhouse gas emissions and one with high. Even under the optimistic scenario of lower emissions, the death toll from extreme temperatures is expected to double by 2065. In the worst-case scenario, this number could triple.

This staggering forecast highlights the urgency to act now. While adaptation efforts like increasing tree cover in urban neighborhoods and improving access to cooling systems are crucial, they will be mere band-aids if we don’t address the root cause: greenhouse gas emissions.

For many, the term “climate change” might still feel abstract, but the reality is that extreme temperatures are already here, and they are killing people. If this trend continues unchecked, the future will be defined by a rise in preventable deaths and severe impacts on the health of our most vulnerable communities. The time to mitigate climate change and protect public health is running out, and unless drastic changes are made soon, the U.S. and the world will face a human cost far greater than anyone could have predicted